El triángulo del fraude corporativo en contextos de crisis económica: Análisis de los elementos de presión financiera, oportunidad organizacional y racionalización ética como facilitadores del fraude durante períodos de recesión.

Abstract

Economic crises generate conditions conducive to the materialization of fraudulent behaviors that compromise corporate financial integrity and erode confidence in capital markets. The objective of this research is to analyze the dynamic interaction of the three components of the fraud triangle —financial pressure, organizational opportunity, and ethical rationalization— in contexts of economic crisis, identifying characteristic patterns of corporate fraudulent behavior, examining the specific mechanisms through which recessions potentiate each vertex of the triangle, and developing a framework of effective preventive controls adapted to limited resource conditions. Through a qualitative-documentary approach, emblematic fraud cases occurring during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Wirecard scandal were analyzed, contrasting them with recent empirical evidence and theoretical frameworks of corporate criminology and forensic auditing. Results demonstrate that economic recessions act as catalysts that simultaneously potentiate all three vertices of the triangle: financial pressures intensify due to deteriorating indicators and insolvency threats; opportunities expand through weakened internal controls and reduced oversight; and rationalizations find validation in emergency and organizational survival narratives. The ACFE 2024 report revealed that 53% of investigated fraud cases included pandemic-related factors, with median losses increasing 24% compared to the previous period. The study concludes that an integrated understanding of these dynamics is fundamental for designing resilient preventive controls that maintain effectiveness during economic turbulence, highlighting organizational ethical culture, protection of internal audit functions, effective whistleblower channels, and data analytics technologies as the most resilient mechanisms. This research provides an analytical framework for forensic audit professionals, audit committees, and regulators interested in strengthening corporate governance in contexts of economic adversity.